EJ 12month PE based Target Price US$26.17 (or 24X 2010E PE)

Yesterday, my first initiation published, and then 7:20am was China & HK call, 14:55pm London call, and 19:30pm New York call. The stock closed at US$20.12 (up 7%). Hold up there, baby, till 26!

I received many congratulations from colleagues and friends. My colleagues are so nice and give me many constructive feedback and suggestions, and sales are so kind to tolerate my not-well-prepared presentation.

Special thanks to my supervisors: Wang Yi (who sacrificed her entire 2week holdiday for my initation...and guide me through the whole process hand in hand); Wu, Anthony; Koh, Kelvin; Nguyen, Joy; Hayes, Keith;

team mates: Lian, Paul;Wong, Tommy; Gao; Yue Qun; Lau, Kinger; Zhang, Xiao Yu;

CMG: Shih, Sandia; Wintle, Derek; Meera, KC; Schultz, Pamela;

Sales: Ambrose, Graham; Ru, Pat; Yu, Richard; Wen, Kelly; Zheng, Tingting;

Clients: Wang, Shihong; Wang, Odette; Chen, Lenny;

Company mgmt: Yuan, Michelle; Chen, Lilan;

Industry contacts: Liu, Yuan;

Friends who sent competitors' reports for me: Zhao, Robin; Cheng, Tian (who bought the stock at US$19, don't worry, you will make money. Our London client adding position on the same day).

Really appreciate you help during last 2 month ...Below 3 pictures would never come into being withut your help!

 

 

After 14 consecutive hours, finally completed 2nd draft of the first initation at 2am today.

Dring the past week, 1/2 of the upside, 30% has been realized before the report is out...And hopefully the left 30% won't vanish in the next week..

Timing is really important in research. Always being prepared is equally important as the capability of forecasting for a research analyst.

今天“正式”打开CFA book1然后现在看到12页。。心里数2005-2009，哇我已经考了4次Level2啦！

2009年的今天，我开始看书了，虽然还有厚厚6本砖头，无论考不考得出来，我都要尽力读完，这是对我智商毅力品格的训练，是我从混乱的2年中走出来，循偱渐进地寻找理想，改进自我的开端。要加油啊！

我这5年的表现怎么看都是个垃圾股，盈利持续低迷，价值高估，管理层（我）执行力太差，盈利指导总是达不到, 股东（家长，老板）长期处于失望状态。

怎样使垃圾升级为成长型优质股？管理层要抓住主要矛盾，切实增强执行力，达到未来5年持续盈利增长的目标，让股价有基本面支撑，增强股东信心。

Finally the sector report is wrapped up and tmr will be the IRC..

When I updating the data from yesterday to today's close, lots of stocks under our coverage turned from offering xx% upside to implying xx% down side only in 1 day..

When I input data in comp sheet, the HK listed sector avg foward PE already reached 17x, well I still remebered in Sept it was 8x...PB up to 1.5x from 1x...discount to NAV from -50% to 2% premium...what can I say...

It's always like this, the sector report took 1 week to compose, and on the 1st day when typing the bullet points, our view is always correct, but at the end of the week, sending files to IRC, the upside/downside somehow vanished...and the report turned into a mark-to-market piece...Lagger again.

The only way to capture more potential retain on score card is to shorten the report writing time, or take risks to be more ahead of the curve.

PMI released today 52.4%, beat the mkt whispering number 50%, most items back to 1H08, "V shape" recovering is taking plance...in everywhere stock, property, export, and hopefully JOB and SALARY =)

学经济学了7年，对繁荣和萧条都是麻木的，读到历史上经济扩张与收缩的感觉就仅仅是背书：

柯立芝繁荣时期，美国总统柯立芝认为事情发展的很好的时期，政府最好的政策就是任其发展，不闻不问；

过热之后，1929-33是世界上时间最长、范围最广、影响最深的危机；世界经济倒退十年，宏观经济学鼻祖、家庭财富皆美满的凯恩斯提出有效需求理论，要求危急时刻政府花钱；

这一政策在世界大战后，美国帮助欧洲复兴的马歇尔协议中得到执行贯彻；

欧洲恢复元气后，石油危机来了，美国和石油生产国开始打仗，石油跌价了，成本推动型的通货膨胀消失，经济复苏；

03-07年资产价格飞速增长，好房地产价格翻几翻，好股票价格翻几十番，石油一度冲200美元一桶；

08经济由火入冰，弱点的企业就阵亡了，背点的人才也重新上市了。

 

上班了2年，终于切身体会到了繁荣的过热和收缩的阵痛：

07年1月份我实习的时候，股票还在2800挣扎着冲3000点，中海瀛台13000一平方，华润上海滩花园18000，仁恒河滨城15000；

07年7月我正式上班，股票已经冲过4000点朝着6000点迈进，SOHO China  顺利定价在8.30港币每股，投资者给了还在天上飞的前门项目premium, 中海瀛台踏上20000高档台阶，华润上海滩花园自然上25000，仁恒河滨城22000；

07年10月，SinoOcean 顺利上市，定价在高端，投资者又给了这个扎扎实实的资产premium,８月份准备的upgrade sector报告终于在无数client requests的骚扰中发表了，然后迎来了股市崩盘；

08年２月恒大上市失败了，３月开始跟客户说可以抛股票了，４月宝龙地产上市失败了，５月down grade sector to cautious,中海瀛台上30000，华润上海滩花园33000，仁恒河滨城35000;

08年8月，小姐我第一次拿到了bonus，听到数字觉得是不是听错了，开心了不到一天，拿到工资单，税交了近40%，开始对铁路公路等基建产生感情，这里面以后会有我的血汗钱；

08年９月，雷曼倒了，美林合并了，亲爱的Grace小姐到了Nomura; 10月份开始传rumor MS要倒了，我们的股票开始跟着跌；

08年11月，我们开始裁人了，第一轮，韩国office一半人没了；12月，第二轮，台湾新加坡office剩下的不多了；

09年１月，第三轮,日本和AEJ合并了，便宜的BA也受影响了，２月这个星期四，一封封仓促的farewell在inbox出现，香港同事跟我说上海property team要裁２个,在办公室的只有３个，为了有时间理东西，我开始为未雨绸缪，把personal belonging开始打包，叫快递，然后到６点，在美国marketing的老板发信说，we are safe this round, 奇迹发生了。。台风中心的over sized property team此轮全活。４月份要报１Q业绩,如果好，老大估计就是最后一次了，如果不好，又是一波。

 

读万卷书，不如行万里路，

读经济学，不如敏感得生活在经济生活中。

今天洪晃主持的谈话节目中，邀请袁岳谈大学生就业。

袁岳很真诚得支了招：“以下8条，大学作了2-3条，就可以找到工作了，8条都做到，所有的工作随变挑”

　　1、三次实习，多多益善，最好在不同单位。
　　2、创办一个学生社团或者参加三次以上活动。 　　

　　3、学会看快书，一周一本。 　
　　4、听60场讲座。 　　
　　5、结交150个陌生朋友，学会交换名片“名片意识”。 　　
　　6、尝试一次创业。 　　
　　7、去5-6个从未去过的地方，了解人文气息。
　　8、懂人情世故。

袁老师说，他的３６条人情世故在网上可以找到，懂了之后可招人喜欢，我就搜索了一把，转贴下，供大家学习讨论：

 

亲爱的同学们~

由于本人身体每况愈下，觉得没有血液和养分滋养长发，近日，在奕奕姐姐的陪同下，我终于把陪同我8年的长头发减了~~真是一头轻松~

hoho 而且卷了一下~~发现一个很好的弹性着哩，卷发的朋友推荐使用~

 

困死了。。。去睡觉了，谢谢奕奕~！！

 

SO SHOCKED when Liang Hong left the firm...she's a very nice and lovely lady....who's commercial and interesting..

And with expected when Eric Jia and Fan jj left..

Again surprised when Yuliang left..

Expecting another close friend will leave...

 

Suddenly I'm the oldest BA with the dept....

It was just like YESTERDAY I came into the Shanghai office with trepidation, and talked to my boss with meticulous care...

I remembered it was only 1.5 years ago when I was firstly phone interviewing with Eric Jia and performed poorly but Eric nicely put me through....

I remembered the first time I met LH last April, I'm so impressed she looked so young and beautiful, more a banker than an economist, wth humorous words.

I remembered the memorible training in NYC 1 year ago with Yuliang, Joey, Dennis and Eric, and only Joey will be still with the firm...

I remembered this April I was with Fan and we two struggled in annual results, the first time I did annual results and the first time Fan did in property sector...and I learnt "work first" from Fan during exhausting weekend in beijing...and Dennis corrected my first note on Yanlord, though not published...and the unbalanced model with 1.33 diference till yesterday my boss balanced it...

 

When my 1st mentor, Zhang Feng left the firm last Feb, I cried...and felt so miserable...and he told me when I saw more ppl leaving I would be fine. And facts has proving his word, averagely 1 person leaving per month from BA to Assocate to VP to MD....even my boss and I were once leaving..but back in 3 days.....colleges called it "Robby's curse"...(poor Robby...or should I say impressive Robby..hoho)

 

Anyway...I've grown out of days of crying when ppl leaving, and used to see farewell party after farewell letter, and seeing colleges joining competitors driven out of the firm in 1 day..and develop their career in new places quite well..So, dear all, wish you BEST MOVE!!!

 

 

最近老忙俄..所以很多朋友的电话都没接,很对不起...

阿肉,对不起,其实你生日那天,我脑子里想到很多很多次要给你打电话,写email的，但是忙了一整天，一直没空下来处理私事。。

高高，对不起啊。。很多你的电话都没接，我老板离我的距离小于一米，我一接你电话，就听到她开始叹气。。。

还有那些没赴约的饭啊。。中报期间大家一定要原谅我~~

 

哎呀，我要去洗澡拉。。。等下去加班。。。

 

 

刚才在office受到老板、大老板、朋友们祝good luck的email...msg...

luoluo同学很无奈得像说。。。这个就转送给我那些有机会考出来的朋友们吧：

小丁，乔乔,Tommy, Gulei,Vicky,yuequn, judy,...

请大家从明天起就开始祝我明年能过~~hoho 这么日复一日的艰巨任务还是我自己来吧。。1800页，其实每天看6页就够了。。

 

Hoho Got 2 votes from Fidelity

It's the first time in my life I got votes from client. hoho

Many thanks for Justin, my team mate, the 1st one to congrat me on the good news,

and Dennis, Robby, who blast the news to BAs, Yuliang who cong me and was not mad at my ruining his weekly kitchart templates.....

 

And my dear client: Wu, Jocelyn, who voted me. =D

And and my boss...who let me do a lot of requests from Fido...

最近开始经常买时尚杂志, 时刻提醒自己要健康生活,努力减肥,立志当美女~~

hoho 原因是王晶晶说 "您这样的形象，嫁不掉了" 好吧，个么我努力一下

 

当然，作为一个新时代独立女性，形象只是目标的小小小部分，

恩，我要开始努力研究房地产行业，公司pay我钱（bonus还在天上飞。|||)，我还学不好，实在是有负乡亲父老，亲朋好友。等我把fundamental搞清楚了再学习technique..股票市场

 

我最近发现我老板是百科全书，让我挺开心的，我问她什么，她都有答案，hoho

Wendy:为什么炒菜的时候要后放盐？

WY:因为先放盐，水分会很快出来....

Wendy:这个是什么？

WY:这个是蚕宝宝吃的桑叶...

Wendy:蚕宝宝吐出来的丝...

WY:在蚕宝宝吐出来丝前，肚子里都是白白的浆..

Wendy:为什么办公室人多了会开心？

WY:因为人多了又沟通，女人尤其需要沟通...

Wendy:为什么我问什么问题你都有答案？

WY:这个就是analyst,不懂也要装懂!

 

不过，昨天还真的有丝感动

WY:办公室里人多了，最近你开心点了吧？

Wendy:对的

回想说，上个周末跟老板吵架

WY:你怎么一个礼拜就要这样闹一次的拉..你要怎样才会开心啊？

Wendy:我没时间，没时间学习，没时间休息，身体不好，知识没积累，不开心

WY:那你现在开始9点钟以后就可以回家，周末不用加班。9点钟以后做你自己感兴趣的事情。

一个礼拜后，她还记得问我是不是开心点了，

虽然，这个星期也没9点钟回家，周末还是要会公司一下下，

但是，还是有小感动，我老板promise我的事情她真的有努力！

我要development，让我上morning call，写weekly product，

我要休息，就不强迫我加班，（其实我也会自愿加班下。。。）

这大概就是她做到老板的原因吧。。言必行

很重要啊

 

不想我，说了不算，算了不说。。。

比如，减肥说了几百年。。。听说，现在我在朋友面前也没什么credibility。。。

每次我说我要减肥，大家就翻白眼说，你从大学说到现在。。

好吧，我要向老板学习~~言出必行~~

 

 

hahahahahha~~~the best thing I've heard and now enjoying in work -- "GARDEN LEAVE"

Dear friends, if you have time for tea, coffee, pls give me a call~~~=D

WAITING FOR HOLIDAYS!!!

5 hrs delay.....and no taxi....

But the snow is so BEAUTIFUL!

Em, everything goes on well..Hope I can successfully pass Paper1 this time.

Met lovely Grace, pretty Daisy, happy Robin couple and long time no see Dennis, and had dinner in Simply Thai. Really happy to see them all~~=D

bought a new luggage bag, a hand bag same style as Grace's, a PSP for my supervisor...nothing more...Will stay here till Mon eve.

My supervisor is now under pressure. Hope everything goes on well with her and may her calm, wisdom and happiness.

Back home...hope I can get to office before 8:30am tmr morning..

These days ppl are moving or about to move....I have to say...the turnover rate is really high...One school mate left the firm to join CICC ECM, got a package doubled. And it's said CICC sales annual salary is 1300-1500 k RMB.

However I do believe the mkt will pay what one deserves. Turning to sales so early won't be a good choice from my perspective.

Today Yi went to shopping at 6pm and thus I can take 8:45pm yoga hot hour =)

Leaving at 8pm....hope I can leave so early everyday~ DAY DREAMING

If I go there, another weekend will be occupied....=(

I need some circles out side work, pls drag me into some interesting things when you have chance...Gonna sleep....

 

When to cut hair...

When to do laundry..

When to do yoga...

When to do facial...

When to buy some winter clothes...before spring comes...